The dos and don’ts for predicting invasion dynamics with species distribution models

Invasion dynamics are context-dependent and non-equilibrial, with invasive spread associated impacts continuously unfolding contingent on pathway, history, chance, over features of recipient ecosystems. Identifying a tool that can predict the risk extent an invasion, help stakeholders make informed decisions, is highly sought after. The Species Distribution Model (SDM) powerful statistical machinery for mapping species distribution potential based geo-referenced occurrence records together selected GIS layers spatially explicit predictors, gaining popularity in biogeography macroecology. Models have been widely used studies invasion biology, mostly to assess prospective invader using primarily from its native range. As tool, SDM will process any input data into compelling results presented as alluring maps; this however runs ‘garbage-in, gospel-out’—overly trusting suitability map generated black-box software package, followed by cognitive biases steer one justify ecological reality. In Editorial, I describe some common practices highlight key issues need be addressed predicting SDMs. This call more conscious practice SDMs science.